DYNAMICS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE EXPECTANCY FACTORS: REGIONAL ASPECT

Abstract

Introduction. According to the development goals of the Russian Federation up to 2030, life expectancy (LE) is to be increased to 78 years, and in the long term –up to 81 years by 2036. Significant territorial, settlement, and gender differences in mortality and life expectancy are serious barriers to achieving the stated goals. The regions of the Siberian Federal District (FD) have had higher mortality rates and lower LE for many decades compared to the Russian average ones. This fact proves the scientific and practical importance of the study. The purposes of the study include identifying key trends in the LE dynamics for 2010–2023, determining the relationship between significant economic, socio-demographic determinants and life expectancy, and developing a typology of regions of the Siberian FD based on the level of LE and influencing factors.

Materials and methods. The analysis is based on the data of the Federal State Statistics Service on mortality and life expectancy in the regions of the Siberian Federal District, in Russia for 2010–2023, as well as on the results of correlation, multiple regression analysis of the relationship between LE and influencing factors.

Results. In 2010–2019, a trend towards an increase in life expectancy was formed due to rising standard of living of the population, a decrease in per capita sales of strong spirits, and a decrease in mortality from unnatural causes. In 2020–2021, life expectancy decreased significantly as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The reduction was most noticeable in Siberian regions with a relatively high level of economic development, where regional capitals have population of about and more than one million people. The period of 2022–2023 revealed a tendency for LE to recover to the level of 2019. In the first half of 2024, mortality increased in absolute terms and, as a result, life expectancy decreased.

Discussion. The authors identify factors that have a statistically significant impact on LE. A positive impact is exerted by the growth of per capita income of the population, while a negative impact is exerted by an increase in per capita consumption of strong liquor (over 25% of strength). The following types of regions are identified according to life expectancy: moderately problematic, problematic, and highly problematic. The typology makes it possible to develop measures for minimizing risk LE factors taking into account regional features. A differentiated approach to the implementation of family and demographic policies in the regions will improve the effectiveness of the measures taken.