PROSPECTS FOR THE CBDC INTRODUCTION IN THE WORLD AND IN RUSSIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22394/2304-3369-2023-1-5-18Abstract
Research relevance. In the context of global digitalization and the need to establish socio-economic, financial and other ties in the face of unforeseen external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, ideas for the development and implementation of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) gain more popularity in the professional and scientific environment around the world. First of all, this is due to their fundamental differ- ence from other forms of digital coins – CBDC are directly provided with the responsibility of the regulator. The purpose of the study is to assess the prospects for the introduction of the central bank's digital currency in Russia by studying the features of digital currencies and the world practice of their implementation, de- termining the main advantages and disadvantages and modeling the impact of non–cash payments on the economic development of Russia in 2000-2022.
Methods and methodology. The research describes digital money, analyzes their difference from classi- cal fiat money and cryptocurrencies. On the basis of foreign literature, as well as reports of the world finan- cial organizations, pros and cons of digital currency introduction are highlighted. Next, the world and do- mestic experience in the development and implementation of CBDC is considered. Based on regression analysis the impact of non-cash and cash payments on economic growth of Russia is estimated.
Results. The experience of China and Sweden as one of the most advanced countries in the creation and implementation of the national digital currency in the current financial sector was noted. The experience of Russia, which has been actively working on the development of digital payment infrastructure in recent years, is analyzed. So, at the end of 2022 a special bill on the digital ruble was introduced to the RF State Duma. Based on regression modeling, the following result was obtained: cash transactions had a stronger positive effect on real GDP growth in 2020 – 2022 rather than non-cash payments.
Conclusions. Full digitalization and full transition to a digital currency do not seem feasible in Russia in the short-term. Testing of other hypotheses and analysis of financial and socio-economic factors justifying the feasibility of introducing a digital currency, as well as the search for effects from the introduction of a digital currency can be the subject of further research
References
1.OZTURKCAN, S., SENEL, I., &OZDINC,M. (2022). Framing theCentral BankDigital Currency (CBDC) revolution. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2022.2099261.
2 LIPTON, A., HARDJONO, T., & PENTLAND, A. (2018). Digital trade coin: towards amore stable digital currency. Royal Society Open Science, 5(7), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.180155.
3 PETERS, M. A., GREEN, B., & YANG, H. (2020). Cryptocurrencies, China's sovereign digital currency (DCEP) and the US dollar system. Educational Philosophy and Theory, 54(3), 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1080/00131857.2020.1801146.
4 TORAMAN, Y. (2019). Funding by e-money and tokens (digital turkish coin): A studyondigital turkish lira.Bilge International Journal of Social Studies, 5(2), 124-134. https://doi.org/10.47257/busad.1020347.
5 BORDO, M.D., & LEVIN, A.T. (2017). Central bank digital currency and the future of monetary policy. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w23711.
6 KEES, H., & JACOB,W. (2021). A newdigital currency system. The Central European Review of Economics andManagement, 5, 33-60. https://doi.org/10.29015/cerem.929.
7 RUPINO, C., PAULO, M., & HELDER, S. (2021). Frombitcoin toCentral Bankdigital currencies:Making sense of the digital money revolution. Future Internet, 13, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi13070165.
8 ZHANG, T., & HUANG, Z. (2022). Blockchain and central bank digital currency. ICT Express, 8(2), 264-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icte.2021.09.014.
9 КОЧЕРГИН Д. А., ЯНГИРОВА А. И. Центробанковские цифровые валюты: ключевые характеристики и направления влияния на денежно-кредитную и платежную системы // Финансы: теория и практика. 2019 Т. 23,№4 (112). C. 80-98. EDN NGXWZB.
10 BARRDEAR, J., & KUMHOF, M. (2016). The Macroeconomics of Central Bank IssuedDigital Currencies. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2811208.
11 JABBAR, A., GEEBREN, A., HUSSAIN, Z., DANI, S., & UL-DURAR, S. (2023). Investigating individual privacy within CBDC: A privacy calculus perspective. Research in International Business and Finance,64, Article 101826.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101826.
12 HUBER, J. (2023). Central banks and monetary policy under conditions of CBDC. InTheMonetary Turning Point (pp. 151-158). https://doi.org/10.1007/9783-031-23957-1_8.
13.CHUEN, D., YAN, L., &WANG, Y. (2021). A global perspective on central bank digital currency.China Economic Journal, 14, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1870279.
14.КОЧЕРГИН Д.А. Цифровые валюты центральных банков: мировой опыт // Мировая экономика и международные отношения. 2021 Т. 65, № 5 C. 68-77. EDN CUETEZ.
15.ЧЕКАНОВ П. Е. Перспективы и риски эмиссии цифрового рубля Банком России // Азимут научных исследований: экономика и управление. 2021 Т. 10, № 2 (35). C. 383-388. EDN ZJMUAK.
16.СИТНИК А. А. Цифровые валюты центральных банков // Вестник Университета имени О.Е. Кутафина (МГЮА). 2020 № 9 (73). C. 180-186 EDN OSLXOR.
17 АНДРЮШИН С. А. Цифровая валюта центрального банка как третья форма денег государства // Актуальные проблемы экономики и права. 2021 Т. 15, № 1 C. 54-76. EDNMCEDZP.
18 МАСЛОВ А. В., ШВАНДАР К. В., МАКЛАКОВА Ю. А. Цифровые валюты центральных банков и место цифрового рубля // Финансы и кредит. 2021 Т. 27,№5 (809). C. 1058-1073. EDNQCSSNY.
19 ЛЕБЕДЕВА Н. Ю., НАЗАРЕНКО Г. В., СЕДРАКЯН Л. К. Цифровая валюта центрального бан-ка: перспективы и риски эмиссии // Государственное и муниципальное управление. Ученые записки. 2020 № 2 C. 147-153. EDN GPVTYT.
20.СИНЕЛЬНИКОВА-МУРЫЛЕВА Е. В. Цифровые валюты центральных банков: потенциальные риски и выгоды // Вопросы экономики. 2020 № 4 C. 147-159. EDN VWZMIF.
REFERENCES
1. OZTURKCAN, S., SENEL, I., & OZDINC, M. (2022). Framing the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) revolution. Technology Analysis and Strategic Man- agement, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2022.2099261.
2. LIPTON, A., HARDJONO, T., & PENTLAND, A. (2018). Digital trade coin: towards a more stable dig- ital currency. Royal Society Open Science, 5(7), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.180155.
3. PETERS, M. A., GREEN, B., & YANG, H. (2020). Cryptocurrencies, China's sovereign digital currency (DCEP) and the US dollar system. Educational Philosophy and Theory, 54(3), 1-7. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/00131857.2020.1801146.
4. TORAMAN, Y. (2019). Funding by e-money and tokens (digital turkish coin): A study on digital turkish lira. Bilge International Journal of Social Studies, 5(2), 124-134. https://doi.org/10.47257/busad.1020347.
5. BORDO, M.D., & LEVIN, A.T. (2017). Central bank digital currency and the future of monetary policy. National Bureau of Economic Research.https://doi.org/10.3386/w23711.
6. KEES, H., & JACOB, W. (2021). A new digital cur- rency system. The Central European Review of Eco- nomics and Management, 5, 33-60. https://doi.org/ 10.29015/cerem.929.
7. RUPINO, C., PAULO, M., & HELDER, S. (2021). From bitcoin to Central Bank digital currencies: Mak- ing sense of the digital money revolution. Future Internet, 13, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi13070165.
8. ZHANG, T., & HUANG, Z. (2022). Blockchain and central bank digital currency. ICT Express, 8(2), 264-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icte.2021.09.014.
9. KOCHERGIN, D. A., & YANGIROVA, A. I. (2019). Central bank digital currencies: key characteristics and directions of influence on monetary and credit and payment systems. Finance: Theory and Practice, 23(4), 80-98. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2019-23-4-80-98.
10. BARRDEAR, J., & KUMHOF, M. (2016). The Macroeconomics of Central Bank Issued Digital Cur- rencies. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/ 10.2139/ssrn.2811208.
11. JABBAR, A., GEEBREN, A., HUSSAIN, Z., DANI, S., & UL-DURAR, S. (2023). Investigating individ- ual privacy within CBDC: A privacy calculus per- spective. Research in International Business and Finance, 64, Article 101826. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.ribaf.2022.101826.
12. HUBER, J. (2023). Central banks and mone- tary policy under conditions of CBDC. In The Mon- etary Turning Point (pp. 151-158). https://doi.org/ 10.1007/978-3-031-239571_8.
13. CHUEN, D., YAN, L., & WANG, Y. (2021). A glob-
al perspective on central bank digital currency. Chi- na Economic Journal, 14, 1-16. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/17538963.2020.1870279.
14. KOCHERGIN, D. A. (2021). Central banks dig- ital currencies: world experience. World Economy and International Relations, 65(5), 68-77. https:// doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-5-68-77.
15. CHEKANOV, P. E. (2021). Prospects and risks of issuing the digital ruble by the bank of Russia. Azimuth of Scientific Research: Economics and Ad- ministration, 10(2),383-388.https://doi.org/10.26140/ anie-2021-1002-0084.
16. SITNIK, A. A. (2020). Digital currencies of central banks. Courier of the Kutafin Moscow State Law University (MSAL), (9), 180-186. https://doi. org/10.17803/2311-5998.2020.73.9.180-186.
17. ANDRYUSHIN, S. A. (2021). Digital currency of the central bank as the third form of money of the state. Actual Problems of Economics and Law, 15(1), 54-76. https://doi.org/10.21202/1993-047X.15.2021.1.54-76.
18. MASLOV, A. V., SHVANDAR, K. V., & MAKLAKOVA, YU. A. (2021). Digital currencies of central banks and the position of the digital ruble. Finance and Credit, 27(5), 1058-1073. https://doi.org/10.24891/ fc.27.5.1058.
19. LEBEDEVA, N. YU., NAZARENKO, G. V., & SEDRAKYAN, L. K. (2020). Central bank digital currency: prospects and risks of emission. State and Municipal Management. Scholar Notes, (2), 147-153. https:// doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2020-1-2-147-153.
20. SINELNIKOVA-MURYLEVA, E. V. (2020). Central bank digital currencies: potential risks and benefits. Voprosy Ekonomiki, (4), 147-159. https://doi. org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-4-147-159.
