‘Demographic’ factor of fertility: Assessing territorial potential on the example of the Nizhny Novgorod region
ru
Original Article|Social Management
AbstractFull textReferencesFilesAuthorsAltmetrics
Nadezhda Yu. Egorova (Dr. Sci. (Sociology), Associate Professor)
National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (23, Gagarin Av., Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russian Federation)
Irina V. Sitnikova (Cand. Sci. (Sociology))
National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (23, Gagarin Av., Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russian Federation)
Introduction. Despite the implementation of serious measures in the framework of state family policy to stabilise the demographic situation, it remains difficult in most regions. This is due, firstly, to the new challenges the country is facing, and secondly, to the complexity of the very processes that need to be controlled. Population size, being a complex quantitative indicator of the stability of society, is determined by a number of demographic processes, among which fertility remains the main one. The number of studies attempting to identify the factors determining fertility trends is growing. All of them demonstrate the complexity and multifactorial nature of the process and the changes taking place. More and more often attention is paid to the demographic characteristics (sex-age and marriage structure) of the population as a starting point from which to begin the assessment of the territory and its reproductive potential.

Nizhny Novgorod region, being a typical Russian region, has been demonstrating an unfavourable scenario of demographic situation development in recent decades. The article attempts to describe and assess the reproductive potential of the region, to identify the possibilities and limitations of fertility growth in the current conditions, based on the analysis of the ‘demographic’ factor.

Materials and methods. The analysis and conclusions are based on the data of the Federal State Statistics Service on demographic processes in Russia and the region for 1990-2023 (population size, birth rate, marriage rate, divorce rate), as well as on the data of regional sociological studies on fertility and family/reproductive behaviour.

Results and discussion. The results of the study provide little basis for a favourable forecast in the region. On the one hand, the sex and age structure of the population is not yet characterised by disproportion in fertile ages, except for the oldest groups. However, there is a high probability of its appearance in younger ages under current conditions. In addition, active and potential fertile groups of women are significantly smaller than older groups. The marriage structure is becoming more stable, but with a high probability of divorce, acceptability of cohabitation, and a shift of births to older groups. The studies record a persistent gap between the desired and actual number of children in different socio-demographic groups, which, from the authors' point of view, is important and requires careful research to correctly stimulate fertility.
Keywords: fertility factors, sex and age structure, marriage structure of the population, reproductive potential
УДК: 314.152(470.341)
ВАК: 05.04.03, 05.04.04
ГРНТИ: 04.21.51, 05.11.21, 05.11.25
Article received: January 11, 2024
Article accepted: April 15, 2024
Rostovskaya, T. K., & Saralieva, Z. Kh. M. (2018). Value orientations of the youth of Nizhny Novgorod region (results of regional sociological research). Vestnik VEGU, (3), 89–96. https://elibrary.ru/xrecgl.
Saralieva, Z. Kh., & Balabanov, S. S. (2009). Children as a vital value for Russians. Russia Reforming, (8), 390–403. https://elibrary.ru/pbtjfz.
Jeffers, K., Esteve, A., & Batyra, E. (2024). Non-family Living Arrangements Among Young Adults in the United States. European Journal of Population, 40(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-024-09696-5.
Arkhangelsky, V. N., Vasilyeva, E. N., & Vasilyeva, A. E. (2021). Reproductive intentions of modern Russian youth and assessment of the possibilities of their realization. Logos et Praxis, 20(3), 93–111. https://doi.org/10.15688/lp.jvolsu.2021.3.10.
Arkhangelsky, V. N., Bogdan, I. V., Kalachikova, O. N., & Chistyakova, D. P. (2023). Peculiarities of reproductive behavior of Moscow residents. Ekonomicheskie i Sotsial’nye Peremeny: Fakty, Tendentsii, Prognoz, 16(3), 231–246. https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2023.3.87.12.
Hellstrand, J., Nisén, J., & Myrskylä, M. (2022). Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010. European Journal of Population, 38(2), 191–221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-022-09605-8.
Rusanova, N. E., & Ozhiganova, A. A. (2022). Reproductive strategies of Russian women: Results of the pilot survey. Population, 25(4), 55–67. https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2022.25.4.5.
Ushakova, Ya. V., & Zernov, D. V. (2019). Family and children in the context of reproductive health of youth. In T. K. Rostovskaya, & S. V. Ryazantsev (Eds.) National demographic priorities: New approaches, trends (pp. 340–343). Publishing House “Ekon-Inform”. https://elibrary.ru/wquyjz.
Zakharov, S. V. (2022). Population of Russia 2019: Twenty-seventh annual demographic report. National Research University Higher School of Economics. https://doi.org/10.17323/978-5-7598-2554-8.
Kozlova, O. A., & Levina, E. I. (2019). The role of social and economic factors in formation of demographic processes: Evolution of theoretical concepts. Russian Journal of Economic Theory, 16(1), 144–153. https://doi.org/10.31063/2073-6517/2019.16-1.13.
Scherer, S., & Brini, E. (2023). Employment Instability and Childbirth over the Last 20 Years in Italy. European Journal of Population, 39(1), Article 31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09680-5.
Sinelnikov, A. B. (2021). Demographic transition and family-demographic policy. Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, (10), 83–93. https://doi.org/10.31857/S013216250017168-7.
Arkhangelsky, V. N., Zinkina, Yu. V., Korotaev, A. V., & Shulgin, S. G. (2017). Modern fertility trends in Russia and the impact of the pro-natalist policies. Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, (3), 43–50. https://elibrary.ru/ymfzpn.
Vishnevsky, A. G., Zakharov, S. V., & Shcherbakova, E. M. (2020). Population of Russia 2018: Twenty-sixth annual demographic report. National Research University Higher School of Economics. https://doi.org/10.17323/978-5-7598-2326-1.
Zakharov, S. V. (2016). Modest demographic results of the pronatalist family policy in the context of long-term evolution of fertility in Russia. Part 2. Demographic Review, 3(4), 6–26. https://elibrary.ru/ynvxpn.
Sinelnikov, A. B. (2020). What will increase the birth rate - benefits for families with children or demographic self-regulation?. Sociological Journal, 26(2), 174–182. https://doi.org/10.19181/socjour.2020.26.2.7272.
Balbo, N., Billari, F. C., & Mills, M. (2012). Fertility in advanced societies: A review of research. European Journal of Population, 29(1), 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-012-9277-y.
Zhuravleva, T. L., & Gavrilova, Y. A. (2017). Analysis of fertility determinants in Russia: What do RLMS data say?. Higher School of Economics Economic Journal, 21(1), 145–187. https://elibrary.ru/ymiqtf.
Zyryanova, M. A. (2021). The demographic reasons of new period of fertility decline in the Northern Regions of Russia. The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order, 24(3), 104–117. https://doi.org/10.37614/2220-802X.3.2021.73.007.
Sinelnikov, A. B. (2022). Separation of generations in families as a factor for reducing birth rate. Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, (5), 36–48. https://doi.org/10.31857/S013216250020195-7.
Raab, M., & Struffolino, E. (2019). The Heterogeneity of Partnership Trajectories to Childlessness in Germany. European Journal of Population, 36(1), 53–70. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-019-09519-y.
Zimmermann, O. (2021). Is Early Partnership Formation Instrumental for Fertility in Germany?: Influences of Fertility Orientations on Partnership Transitions. Comparative Population Studies, 46. https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-01.
Fostik, A., Fernández Soto, M., Ruiz-Vallejo, F., & Ciganda, D. (2023). Union Instability and Fertility: An International Perspective. European Journal of Population, 39(1), Article 25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09668-1.
Sinelnikov, A. B. (2019). Transformation of marriage and fertility in Russia. Population, (2), 26–39. https://doi.org/10.24411/1561-7785-2019-00013.
Arkhangelsky, V. N. (2021). Fertility dynamics in Russia: Determinants and possible prospects. In N. V. Yakovenko (Ed.) International Demographic Forum “Demography and Global Challenges” (pp. 24–31). Digital printing. https://elibrary.ru/ogrrah.
Kazenin, K. I. (2018). Impact of migration on fertility: Key hypotheses facing evidence from North Caucasus. Population, 21(1), 48–59. https://doi.org/10.26653/1561-7785-2018-21-1-04.
Korolenko, A. V. (2019). Factors contributing to Russia’s demographic development: Panel data research experience. Problems of Territory’s Development, (5), 170–188. https://doi.org/10.15838/ptd.2019.5.103.11.
Rostovskaya, T. K., Shabunova, A. A., & Abdulzyanov, A. R. (2021). Demographic well-being of Russian regions: National demographic report - 2021. Publishing and trading house “PERSPECTIVE”. https://doi.org/10.19181/monogr.978-5-89697-369-0.2021.
Rostovskaya, T. K., Shabunova, A. A., & Abdulzyanov, A. R. (2022). Demographic health of Russian regions. National Demographic Report - 2022. Publishing and trading house “PERSPECTIVE”. https://doi.org/10.19181/monogr.978-5-88045-556-0.2022.
Saralieva, Z. Kh. M., Egorova, N. Yu., & Ryabinskaya, E. S. (2022). Marriage and family of students during transformation. Bulletin of the South-Russian State Technical University (NPI). Series: Socio-Economic Sciences, 15(1), 193–208. https://doi.org/10.17213/2075-2067-2022-1-193-208.
Times citedRecent citationsField Citation RatioRelative Citation Ratio
© Article. Nadezhda Yu. Egorova, Irina V. Sitnikova, 2024.
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.